Backtests Are Evidence, Not Promises

A plain guide to reading ZadVest backtests without turning historical results into future-performance promises.

A backtest can help inspect a rule, but it cannot tell a reader what a live market will do next.

What a backtest can answer

A backtest can show how a rule behaved on historical bars, how often trades appeared, where drawdowns clustered, and whether the sample may be too thin to trust.

That makes it a decision-support artifact, not a prediction engine. The best use is to find weak assumptions early and compare rules more consistently.

What a backtest cannot prove

Historical results do not prove a future edge. Markets change, liquidity changes, and a rule that looked orderly in one window can behave differently later.

Return, win-rate, Sharpe, and drawdown metrics stay descriptive and historical inside ZadVest.

How ZadVest keeps context visible

ZadVest favors plain labels: sample size, risk, in-sample context, and null-benchmark comparisons. Those labels help reduce overconfidence.

The goal is an evidence trail that helps a reader evaluate the product carefully.

Sources