Null Benchmarks in Plain English

A simple explanation of why comparing a result to a basic benchmark can help separate signal from coincidence.

A benchmark asks whether a rule did more than a simpler comparison would have done historically.

Why comparison matters

A backtest can look interesting on its own, but comparison adds needed context.

A null benchmark is a simple reference point. It helps ask whether the rule added useful structure or mainly rearranged historical noise.

What it does not prove

A benchmark comparison still does not prove future performance. It only makes the historical test harder to fool.

In ZadVest, a benchmark is a quality check rather than a certificate of future success.

Why ZadVest mentions it

ZadVest emphasizes null-benchmark comparisons because fragile stories can sound persuasive without a comparison point.

If a result cannot survive a basic comparison, the honest interpretation is weak evidence.